New Delhi: There is some good news for the Congress from the Northeastern state of Assam. The Congress which has been in power in Assam since 2001 has maintained its lead over opponents even in the latest survey.
According to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey it is expected to get 44 per cent of votes in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP is likely to get 19 per cent of the votes. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is likely to garner 11 per cent of the votes while AIUDF may get 10 per cent of the votes. The AAP may get just 1 per cent and the others may get 15 per cent of the votes.
The region wise picture
The Congress is ahead, the BJP close behind and other smaller parties also doing well in Barak Valley. In Lower Assam, the Congress is ahead of the AGP and AIUDF. In Upper Assam, the Congress has a massive lead over its opponents.
Interestingly, the BJP is giving Congress a fight only in urban Assam, but in the rural parts Congress leads by a wide margin (85 per cent of Assam’s population is Rural as per Census 2011).
In rural Assam 44 per cent respondents back the Congress and just 16 per cent are backing the BJP. In urban Assam, 47 per cent are backing the Congress and 37 per cent backing the BJP.
Modi leads PM race
The BJP’s PM nominee Narendra Modi is leading the PM race by establishing just 1 per cent lead over his close rival Rahul Gandhi. The state is witnessing a neck and neck race between Modi and Rahul. Even PM Manmohan Singh is quite popular. He represents Assam in the Rajya Sabha.
While 15 per cent respondents are backing Modi for the PM post, 14 per cent respondents are backing Rahul Gandhi for the post of the PM. PM Manmohan Singh has got 9 per cent support. However, a record number of 59 per cent people have no opinion on the post of PM.
Rahul ahead of Modi in a direct fight
When Assam’s voters were asked to choose between Rahul and Modi for the PM, Rahul finished way ahead. He has got 32 per cent support and Modi has got 21 per cent support. There is also a high net satisfaction with the performance of both state and Central governments in Assam (Net satisfaction is satisfaction percentage minus dissatisfaction percentage). The pro-UPA sentiment in Assam continues to be greater than the anti-UPA sentiment, although it has declined since January.
A total of 40 per cent respondents feel that the UPA should get one more chance at the Centre while 37 per cent respondents feel that it should not get another chance and 23 per cent respondents have no opinion. Like many other states, even in Assam the work done by the state government matters more than when it comes to voting than the performance of the Central government.
Had there been an AGP-BJP alliance it may not have worked as there isn’t huge support for it among their respective voters. Overall just 21 per cent feel that alliance would have worked and 51 per cent respondents have no opinion on the issue.
The influx of foreigners (mainly Bangladeshis) issue is still important, said most respondents in Assam. 43 per cent of the respondents feel that it is very important. 12 per cent respondents answer that it has been blown out of proportion. But, 79 per cent respondents answer that they don’t know which party could handle the foreigners issue effectively.
TOP 5 election issues in Assam
Development – 23 per cent
Corruption – 8 per cent
Transport related issues – 4 per cent
Price rise – 3 per cent
Unemployment – 3 per cent