The Bharatiya Janata Party is predicted to emerge as the single largest party both in Maharashtra and Haryana, but may fall short of majority in the final outcome, says an IndiaTV-CVoter opinion poll.
In the 90-seat Haryana assembly, the BJP is projected to emerge as the single largest party with 34 seats, closely followed by Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal with 27 seats. The Congress party, ruling the state for the last 10 years, is projected to come third with 16 seats.
Haryana Janhit Congress-Haryana Jan Chetna Party alliance may win 9 seats, with the remaining four seats going to ‘Others’ and independents, says the tracking poll.
In the 2009 assembly elections in Haryana, the Congress had won 40 seats, the INLD 31, BJP four, HJC and HJP 6, and Others 9 seats.
Voteshare wise, BJP this time may get 33 pc votes, followed by INLD with 28 pc, Congress 21 pc, HJC-HJP 10 pc and Others 8 per cent.
In the crucial western state of Maharashtra, the BJP is predicted to emerge as the single largest party.
The India TV-CVoter poll gives a 132-142 seat range to the BJPÂ in the 288-seat assembly, followed by Shiv Sena with a range between 50-60 seats.
Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena has been given a seat range of 8 to 14 seats, while smaller parties and independents may win within a range of 3 to 9 seats, says the opinion poll.
In the 2009 assembly elections in Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP United Progressive Alliance had won 144 seats, the BJP-Shiv Sena NDA had won 90 and ‘Others’ 54 seats.
The survey says, if BJP gets 4 pc swing on polling day (October 15), its seat range may increase within 176-186 seats.
Voteshare wise, BJP is going to get 28 pc votes, followed by Shiv Sena with 19.7 pc, NCP 13.7 pc, Congress 21.2 pc and MNS 7 pc votes. Others may get 10.4 pc votes.
In Maharashtra, the following picture may emerge region-wise, according to the opinion poll:
Greater Mumbai BJP 20, Shiv Sena 21, MNS 11, Congress 7 and NCP 1.
Marathwada region: BJP 30, Shiv Sena 6, Congress 6, NCP 2, MNS 0 and Others 2.
Northern Maharashtra region: BJP 18, Shiv Sena 7, Congress 8, NCP 2, MNS 7, Others 0.
Vidarbha region: BJP 43, Congress 14, Shiv Sena 3, NCP 0, MNS 0, Others 2.
Western Maharashtra: BJP 23, NCP 30, Shiv Sena 10, Congress 5, MNS 0, Others 2.
Konkan region: BJP 3, Shiv Sena 8, Congress 3, NCP 1, MNS 0, Others 0.
Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray emerged the front runner with 16.3 pc respondents saying he was the best candidate for the CM’s post, with 15.5 pc favouring incumbent CM Prithviraj Chavan and 15.3 pc favouring BJP leader Devendra Phadnavis. 8.2 pc respondents favoured MNS chief Raj Thackeray, while 7.6 pc favoured NCP leader Ajit Pawar.
Haryana CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda emerged the frontrunner with 24.8 pc respondents favouring him as the best candidate for CM’s post, while 22 pc favoured INLD chief Om Prakash Chautala. 8.9 pc respondents favoured BJP leader Capt Abhimanyu, while 5.1 pc favoured another BJP leader Rao Inderjit Singh.
The India TV-CVoter poll is based on a random probability sample of 8707 samples for the current week (2nd week of Oct) projections. Long term trends are calculated based upon the cumulative tracking poll data of 20279 respondents interviewed during last 12 weeks. Data weighted to known census profile. Margin of error is plus/minus 3 pc at state level and plus/minus 5 pc at regional level.
