Nuclear weapons are the perfect bluff. You know you can use them and cause irreversible damage, but using them assures you of your own destruction. That’s what nuclear deterrence was all about. It’s the reason why nukes haven’t been used since Uncle Sam dropped the Fat Man on Nagasaki back in 1945. At least that was the theory during the Cold War.
Unfortunately for us, we live in a dangerous neighbourhood, the powder-keg of the world if you will. South Asia, home to three nuclear powers, one of whom can’t even be trusted with a Nerf gun! And with enough ammo to level the planet at our disposal, you can imagine the kind of hair-trigger situation that is.
Did you ever wonder what will happen if we were to cross the nuclear threshold tomorrow? What if the China-Pakistan nexus were to push India into a nuclear conflict? Just the thought is scary. We thought we’ll create some imaginary scenarios just to prove how devastating these weapons really are. How did we do this? We took the known yields of nuclear weapons (although these are closely guarded national secrets, there are estimates available in the public domain) by the three countries and detonated them in the major cities (online, of course). And the results as you’ll see, were shocking.
Scenario 1: Delhi and satellite towns are obliterated by a Chinese nuke.
Yield: 5 MT
Fatalities: 3,559,390
Damage extends beyond Delhi’s borders. All buildings in the 7.83 km radius are reduced to rubble, while the 2.39 km radius of the fireball evaporates most matter. Injured number in the millions.
Scenario 2: Mumbai is hit by a rogue Pakistani bomb.
Yield: 45 kT
Fatalities: 292,550
Central Mumbai is hit during peak rush hour. Although the fire ball is only half a kilometer in radius, it takes out the business district. The 2.74 km thermal radiation radius leaves survivors with third degree burns.
Scenario 3: Beijing is leveled by an Indian sub in the South China Sea.
Yield: 60 kT
Fatalities: 116,970
In retaliation, INS Arihant on patrol in South China Sea targets the Chinese capital and lays waste to most of Beijing. The air blast radius of 1.79 km and the air over-pressure causes widespread fatalities and destroys most residential buildings.
Scenario 4: Downtown Shanghai is no more.
Yield: 60 kT
Fatalities: 391,500
Most skyscrapers in Shanghai’s Pudong New Area business hub are reduced to rubble by the half-a-kilometer radius fireball. The radiation circle of 1.68 km radius causes between 50% – 90% fatalities in the affected area.
Scenario 5: Islamabad is unrecognisable after a Prithvi missile strike.
Yield: 60 kT
Fatalities: 84,890
Half the size of the Indian capital, Islamabad suffers heavily. Those affected by the air blast circle are most likely to perish. People within the 30.5 sq. km. area around the blast suffer from severe scaring and disablement.
Scenario 6: Karachi is rendered a ghost town.
Yield: 60 kT
Fatalities: 499,210
Pakistan’s most populated city suffers heavy losses. More than a kilometer wide fireball, which contains almost 50% of the total energy of the explosion, kills most within the area. Flash burn injuries expected up to a distance of 5 km from ground zero.
As you can imagine, even these conservative estimates are enough to change the course of history. The real damage begins following a nuclear blast. Almost 90% of the deaths occur in the first two months following the detonation. In the third and fourth month, most deaths occur due to ionising radiation.
But it gets worse. Depending on the weather conditions like wind speed and rain, more people are affected by the fallout (the residual radioactive material that reaches the upper atmosphere and falls out of the sky). Survivors are likely to suffer from radiation poisoning and suffer from bone marrow death.
The latter is accompanied by vomiting and diarrhea. Other survivors’ central nervous systems will be affected causing extreme pain, convulsions, nausea and seizures. It doesn’t end there. Short term effects include hair loss, itching and flaking of skin and ulcers on the skin. Long term risks include cataract and cancer induction. The effects will last for more than 50 years after the blast. Future generations of survivors are likely to suffer from genetic diseases.
